SurveyUSA poll of Mar 6: Clinton wins against McCain, 276 electoral college votes to 262. (Map below modified from NYTimes report on 2004 election results. Clinton: blues. McCain: reds.) Survey-USA has the best track record this election season of predicting primary results.
One thing that struck me about this is that Obama did well in a number of states which are unlikely to vote Democratic in the general election. Clinton did well in states that have the electoral college votes to win the election. She also has some chance of putting Texas in the Dem column, although I’d consider that a long shot.
But by far the biggest thing that struck me about it is that Clinton and Obama are both more or less even with McCain. It’s mindboggling that so many still want to vote for the anti-people party, but that’s not my point right now. Nor is currently significant whether they’re ten electoral college votes ahead or behind. What’s important is that Obama is in that position after kid gloves treatment in the media. It’s been so over the top, it even made it to Saturday Night Live. Clinton is still beating McCain after a hate-fest.
The BS about how “Hillary can’t win” could have come straight from Rove’s playbook. Attack people on their strengths, and destroy your biggest opponent first. (Notice that they started with Edwards.)
(Click here for larger image. Opens in new window)
teal: over 10% difference in favor of Clinton, Dem primaries in these states won by Clinton
turquoise: up to 10% difference in favor of Clinton
turquoise: primary won by Clinton (except PA)
bluish: primary won by Obama
PA primary not held yet, polls C:55% O: 36%, in Dem column in survey
WV primary not held yet, in Dem column in survey.
dark red: over 10% difference in favor of McCain
dark purple: Dem primaries won by Obama
only AZ in this category won by Clinton
lighter red: up to 10% difference in favor of McCain
purplish: Dem primaries won by Obama
grayish red with turquoise square: Dem primaries won by Clinton
grayish red (MT, NE, SD, IN, NC, KY, OR): primaries not held yet
ochre: states perfectly tied in the poll. Dem primaries in these states won by Clinton.
Crossposted to Shakesville, where there was much commentary….
Technorati Tags: Hillary, Clinton, election, 2008